By:Vividhaditya
With not even a year left for the state assembly elections, Himachal Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh has some food for thought now especially after the Shimla MC elections. While it has won the elections here, what was surprising and must be baffling for Mr Singh is that the Congress was beaten up in his own backyard. (See the table below for the list of winners and the margin of votes.)
HimVani has been carrying a small poll on its website to find out if the Congress stands a chance to make a come back. Congress there is losing with a big margin. However, the voters here form a small segment and we know nothing about their geographical representation. However, it can be assured nobody’s been stuffing votes in favour of one party as the server does not allow that. But then these voters are people who may not be going to the polling booth actually. And I’m sure these voters online are mostly from outside the state who have very little or no knowledge about the state politics and the ground realities.
Coming back to the Shimla municipal elections, though the margin of victory for the BJP candidate, Manoj Kuthiala from Jakhoo ward was only 180 votes but then victory is victory even though by one vote.
Results of the Shimla MC | ||||||
| Candidate | Ward | BJP | CONG | CPI-M | Gain | |
| 1 | Jeetender C | Bharari | 602 | 910 | 364 | # |
| 2 | Sanjeev Thakur | Ruldu Bhatta | 1654 | 1117 | # | |
| 3 | Seema Chauhan | Kaithu | 761 | 1259 | 261 | Congress |
| 4 | Pradeep Kashyap | Annadale | 1631 | 826 | # | |
| 5 | Dhani Ram Kashyap | Summerhill | 699 | 482 | 1317 | # |
| 6 | Sagar Chand | Tutu* | 1017 | 832 | 305 | BJP |
| 7 | Usha Lakhan Pal | Boileauganj | 1559 | 1942 | # | |
| 8 | Aneeta Hanot | Tutikandi | 912 | 1017 | # | |
| 9 | Gaurav Sharma | Nabha | 1355 | 1129 | # | |
| 10 | Sanjay Sood | Phagli | 1033 | 833 | BJP | |
| 11 | Kaushalaya C | Krishna Nagar | 766 | 1063 | 354 | # |
| 12 | Manju Sood | Ram Bazaar | 1336 | 1031 | 113 | # |
| 13 | Naveen Sood | Lower Bazaar | 888 | 665 | 513 | BJP |
| 14 | Manoj Kuthiala | Jakhoo | 1082 | 902 | BJP | |
| 15 | Narender Kataaria | Benmore | 710 | 831 | # | |
| 16 | Harish Janartha | Engine Ghar | 777 | 1349 | # | |
| 17 | Sudheer Azaad | Sanjauli Chwk | 923 | 1174 | # | |
| 18. | Sanjay Kumar | Dhalli | 746 | 1267 | Congress | |
| 19 | Mahender Chauhan | Chamayana | 1043 | 1387 | 1009 | |
| 20 | Meera | Malyana* | 782 | 1237 | 1396 | CPI (M) |
| 21 | Maheshwer Chauhan | Kasumpti | 779 | 1605 | Congress | |
| 22 | Surender Chauhan | Chotta Shimla | 1676 | 1868 | 802 | # |
| 23 | Patyog | 1213 | 1338 | 159 | ||
| 24 | Dev Raj Sharma | Khalini | 981 | 1277 | # | |
| 25 | Madhu Sood | Kanlog | 866 | 1683 | Congress | |
| Total | 8 | 15 | 2 | |||
| * | New wards | |||||
| # | No change | |||||
| Numbers in BOLD show victory | ||||||
However it’s clear that the Congress does not stand a chance in the assembly elections from the lower Himachal regions like that of Solan, Kangra and other areas. It was the voters from the Upper Shimla region – Jubbal, Kotkhai and Rohru, who are more concentrated in Sanjauli, Dhalli and Vikas Nagar that the Congress was able to retain the Shimla Town Hall. Singh though can be assured that at least he has a chance to win from Shimla or Jubbal/Kotkhai in the assembly elections. The Upper Shimla voters are still with the Congress. Why it’s important for Singh is that he’ll have to vacate the Rohru constituency as it’s been made a reserved constituency. He can’t go back to Rampur as well which still is a reserved constituency. So Singh would have to test new waters. Either Shimla or Jubbal/Kotkhai, which has a love-hate relationship with Singh, only because he’s vacated the constituency every time he’s won from Rohru. The voters in the past too have voted for the Janata Dal (now defunct in HP at least) just because they were sure that they would be put to another election if Singh won from both Rohru and Jubbal/Kotkhai. They were sure that Singh would love to keep the Rohru seat.
Personally, I feel that Singh wouldn’t take chances by fighting elections from just one constituency. So he might put Rohit Thakur (the current MLA from Jubbal/Kotkhai) into waiting and fight from both Jubbal/Kotkhai and Shimla. It would be prudent for Singh if he resists from that. He should choose to fight from just one constituency. Either Shimla or Jubbal/Kotkhai. Shimla still would have a dilly-dallying voter but if he contests from Jubbal/Kotkhai he’s sure to make a win. But he’ll have tough questions to answer to the voters as well. It would be important here, how Rohit Thakur reacts. He doesn’t have the experience and the charisma his father former chief minister Ram Lall Thakur had – to break away from Congress and fight alone, unless the BJP backs him. But for the BJP, it would mean sacrificing Narendra Baragata for that.
Then the assembly elections do not constitute of Upper Shimla only. It has the lower Himachal regions as well. Nothing can be commented right now on the public mindset of this region. We’ll have to wait and watch till the Hamirpur parliamentary elections get over. The Hamirpur parliamentary elections has areas from Kangra, Una, Hamirpur and even Mandi as well. So it would be important who votes for whom here that probably a clearer picture could be formed about the present public mindset. Eight months is a long time for the public to change loyalties.
Even the BJP too cannot ride on the wave of its success in Punjab and other states. As Himachal has always been non-affected by the centre politics. People here vote on local issues and not on national issues. For example, people never voted for the BJP on the basis of Hindutva. It’s always been an anti-incumbency factor.
This is not the question that from whre Mr. Singh will contest, because he is popular throughout the state. Who will lead BJP in next elections. BJP has two leaders Mr. Dhumal and Mr. Shanta Kumar. As far as congress is concerned it has strong leadership in each district. from kangra itself congress has vetrans like Sat Mahajan, Chandra Kumar and B B Butail. Congress has strong leaders from Mandi, Bilaspur, Una and Chamba. But when BJP is concerned it is confined to Hamirpur and Kangra only. Rest of its leaders in HP such as Suresh Bhardwaj, Narender Bragta, Jai Krishan Sharma and most of the leaders from Knagra are not having any mass appeal. this can make a difference in next elections. BJP has to sweep Kangra, Mandi, Kullu and Chamba to be in majority because it is going to get nothing from Shimla and Sirmaur where congress is very strong. So its important for BJP to declare Mr. Shanta Kumar as next Chief Minister, because he is the only leader who can make a difference in kangra.
Well I have a different view on the situation, Its my belief that people have done no good by re-electing the same party over and over again to the MC, if we see what shimla MC has actually done in past 25 years … answer will be a big nothing …. Let us compare Shimla MC to the nearby MC’s like Chandigarh … agreed they have more funds, at the same time the area they need to operate in is also bigger. Also they need to upkeep the city beautiful Image.
I am not advocating BJP here, I am only saying unless there is competition, the incumbent will not function in way it should. What are the achivements of MC’s a new Mayor every two years thats it …
We should rise above petty polictics of upper and lower Himachal, I am shimlaite for life … and I belive that wher the issue like Road, Good Drinkable water and Parking should dominate there upper and lower himachal was looked …. I feel ashamed when I see literate and knowledgable people doing the same.
Someone rightly said ..its not about reading, its about learning
Was wondering how can some body have such a gross knowledge of politicts for disst shimla.Dude wining simla MC doesnt mean that cogress will win all the seats in Disst Simla.This website looks more of a congress mouthpice than a netrual portal.Grow up otherwise you will even be forgotten by your nears and dear. Will urge you to pls gets your fact right and start reporting some sane articles.
Dear Mr Vishal SIngh,
No where have I claimed that Congress can win all the seats from Shimla. I’ll urge you to go through it once again. It’s been analysed.
I’ll also beg to differ that the website is a mouthpiece of the Congress. It’s a neutral website and there are enough articles in BJP’s favour as well. I’ll request you to browse through.
Also, thanks for suggesting us to start doing some “sane reporting”. Well the website has always believed not in complaints but solutions. That’s the idea behind the website. And I’ll urge you to show us the way. It’s a citizen journalism effort, and we at Himvani are always looking forward to people who can do “sane reporting”. We invite you with open arms to please do some “sane reporting” for us.
Looking forward to some meaningful contribution from you. We’ll be very happy to have you as an active member on board.
If you are in Delhi, we certainly can meet up someday.